SCDNR forecast for weekend

by | October 18, 2019 8:57 am

Yesterday’s 96L is now today’s Potential Tropical Cyclone 16. What. Ever.  PTC 16 is over the central GoMex, 875 miles southwest of Bucklick, SC. The actual location is a tad problematic given PTC 16 has no defined center of circulation; just a sprawling, humungo warm bag of gas. PTC 16 has sustained 40 mph winds as it tracks NE at 20 mph. Convection has continued to deepen since yesterday; however,  dry air entrainment and 80-90 mph of shear to the west  are all over PTC 16  like monkeys on a cupcake. Despite the dry air and shear, the GoMex’s well of deep, very warm water should sustain moderate intensification before the storm reaches the Florida Panhandle. PTC 16 becomes a named storm (tropical or sub-tropical – your choice) later today.

PTC 16’s effects for the State should be somewhat LESS than catastrophic beyond a soggy Saturday afternoon hills to shore. Clouds and rainshowers before 2 p.m.  becoming periods of heavy rain dropping 2-4 inches over the Midlands, Pee Dee and Lowcountry Saturday afternoon and evening.  1-2 inches of rain for the Upstate. Highest winds along the coast: 25-35 mph gusting to 45. PTC 16 quickly exits to the  northeast early Sunday morning.

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