Dorian 8 a.m. Monday: SCDNR forecast

by | September 2, 2019 9:11 am

At 8 a.m., Hurricane Dorian was 425 SSE of Charleston over the Bahamas tracking west at one mph — that is correct, one mile per hour. Maximum sustained winds are 165  mph confined to a persistently symmetric eyewall with a diameter of 20 miles.

The forecast scenario has change very little over night. Dorian remains nearly stationary over the Bahamas for the next 24-36 hours over the Bahamas. Dorian weakens slowly to a 140 mph hurricane due to shear aloft, and upwelling cooler waters below. Dorian takes a northerly track after lunch on Tuesday and parallels the Florida coast, slowly weakening further, at 7-8 mph reaching a point 100 miles south of Charleston by 2 a.m. Thursday.  A turn to the northeast ensues. Models have been very good agreement with the northeast turn and Dorian’s intensity weakening as it plods north.

On Thursday, Dorian parallels the S.C. coast with the center of circulation 50-60 miles offshore. Forecasted sustained winds will be 100 mph confined to the small eyewall offshore. The current offshore forecast track will easily put 40-70 mph winds over coastal counties on Thursday. Forty mph winds begin over Beaufort, Jasper and Colleton counties after 10 p.m. Wednesday. Coastal storm surge on the weaker side of Dorian will be roughly 4-6 feet. Rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches focused at the coast with lesser amounts inland.

Dorian clears the S.C. coast for open Atlantic waters after 10 p.m. Thursday.




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