Dorian 2 p.m. Monday

by | September 2, 2019 2:17 pm

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is moving very
slowly toward the west-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h).  A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight.  The hurricane will then move dangerously close
to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and
then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although gradual weakening is
forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).  Sustained winds of 56 mph (91 km/h) with a gust to
69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA Coastal Marine
observing site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama
Island.  A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) was recently report at
Juno Beach Pier, Florida.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.  Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island.  Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Savannah River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into
tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.

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