Dorian 11 a.m. Wednesday: Center to move near/over S.C. coast
by The Press and Standard | September 4, 2019 11:26 am
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019 Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by late tonight and Thursday. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday. ...DORIAN STILL MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... WATCHES AND WARNINGS A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Savannah River DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 79.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Thursday. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move parallel to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A slow weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during this time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). NOAA buoy 41008, located off the Georgia coast, recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the Georgia coast later this morning. Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by late tonight and Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft North of Port Canaveral FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the Georgia coast. Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.