Dorian 11 a.m. Update

by | September 2, 2019 11:00 am

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward along the
east coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the Georgia
coast to the Savannah River.

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been
extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound
Georgia.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.3 West. Dorian is
moving very slowly toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h).  A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north.  On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight.  The hurricane will then move dangerously close
to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and
then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although gradual weakening is
forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.
 

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