Dorian forecast from S.C. Dept. of Natural Resources

by | August 29, 2019 9:00 am

Dorian is now over the Atlantic.  At 5 a.m., Hurricane Dorian was 1,205 miles southeast of Beaufort. Dorian is tracking northwest at 13 mph with max sustained winds of 85 mph. These winds are confined to a small non-descript, raggedy eyewall structure. Dorian is entraining dry air and experiencing some upper shear on the northern side of hurricane. Neither is a show stopper but will only hasten intensification for the next 24-48 hours. Decreased shear and warmer sea surface temperatures will nudge Dorian’s intensity slowly higher.  The models ramp up Dorian’s intensity significantly as the hurricane passes over the northern Bahamas and the Gulf Stream.

Dorian’s forecast track has shifted South since yesterday afternoon with a Monday landfall north of Miami as a 120 mph hurricane. Models are in good agreement with this solution. But we aren’t out of the woods just yet. First, the intensification forecast is all over the map for this small storm. Subsidence aloft may make Dorian larger and weaker prior to landfall in Florida. Larger and weaker also equates to wetter, like last year’s Florence. Models are forecasting 20+ inches of rain over southern Florida. A weaker and larger Dorian would drop even more rain.

Post landfall, and this is us now, Dorian moves north over Florida following I-95, reaching the GS-SC border by Wednesday night with heavy rain and 30-45 mph sustained winds along the coast. Rainfall amounts of 6-16 inches of rain is a conservative forecast for southern S.C. counties Aiken to Charleston. Throw in some abnormally high tides next week and the easterly winds, flooding will be an issue next Thursday and Friday. Six inches of rainfall is a good estimate for points north to the border with North Carolina.

Let’s be extra careful out there.

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