Michael | 2 p.m. Tuesday update

by | October 9, 2018 2:28 pm

Coastal and inland Colleton County remains under a tropical storm watch. 
Earliest reasonable arrival of tropical storm winds (over 39 mph) is Wednesday about 8 p.m. but most likely on Thursday about 8 a.m.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States by Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is
forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening
is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean
winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

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