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SCDNR’s prediction for Florence | 11 a.m. Wednesday

by | September 12, 2018 12:59 pm

 Hurricane Florence, at 11 a.m. today, was 550 miles ESE of Myrtle Beach tracking NW at 15 mph with 130 mph winds. Florence is a 275-mile-wide cyclone with a well defined eyewall complex, and a healthy outflow channel aloft from the northern half of the storm. Cloud top temperatures are fluctuating, indicating a less than perfect environment to maintain the current Category 4 intensity. In the next 24 hours, Florence will encounter an ocean pocket of high heat content that could briefly support intensification to a 145 mph hurricane.

Florence continues NW today and tomorrow reaching a point 40 miles offshore the south coast of N.C. before sunrise Friday. Florence begins a painfully slow turn to the west and will creep towards North Myrtle Beach at a blazing 2.7 mph during the day Friday. During this slow west crawl on Friday, Florence will be over shallow shelf waters and will upwell cooler water. Upwelling reduces the intensity of Florence to 75 mph prior to a North Myrtle Beach landfall at 5 PM Saturday.

Over land, Florence will weaken rapidly to a tropical storm Saturday night over Orangeburg. Early Monday morning, Florence rapidly degrades to a  soggy depression upon reaching northern Oconee county. As with all decaying tropical cyclones, there will be heavy precipitation. Based on the current track, conservative rainfall amounts range from 10-15 inches over the Pee Dee to 4-6 inches over the CSRA. Individual spiral bands could deliver higher amounts  of rainfall, in addition to 40-50 mph wind gusts.

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