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NHC 11 a.m. Tuesday update

by | September 11, 2018 11:05 am


A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* Edisto Beach South Carolina to the North Carolina-Virginia border

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds


At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 65.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days.

On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane watch area Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Florence is expected to begin re-strengthening later today and continue a slow strengthening trend for the next day or so. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide… Edisto Beach to Murrells Inlet…2-4 ft Murrells Inlet to Cape Fear…4-6 ft Cape Fear to Cape Lookout including The Neuse and Pamlico River…6-12 ft Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet…5-8 ft Ocracoke Inlet to North Carolina/Virginia Border…3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts to 30 inches near the storm’s track over portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic States from late this week into early next week. This rainfall could produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by late Thursday or Thursday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

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